3.10.07

Why Tassos will win the election, and why it makes no difference

I agree that Tassos will most probably win the elections.

But I don't think that it makes much difference in the end as far as the Cyprob is concerned.

Bizonal Bicommunal Federation as a possible solution for the Cyprus issue is dead. Major contributing factors to its death have been:

- Makarios' decision to "negotiate first, and tell the people later". "Of course tney can't all go back to their homes, but we won't tell them now". That accounts for the first three years of lies after 1974 - the "covenant of Makarios" which has been the cornerstone of the Greek Cypriot attitude to the Cyprus issue since Makarios' death in 1977.

- Circumstances after Makarios' death which allowed the Greek Cypriot political leadership to continue telling the Greek Cypriots the same lies and fairy tales for another 27 years. Nobody explained that the best we could hope for was a situation where a significant proportion of the Greek Cypriots would go back, some of them would go back under Turkish Cypriot jurisdiction, and the Turkish Cypriots would be participating in central government on a more or less equal footing. Instead, their political leadership has been force-feeding Greek Cypriots fairy tales about the blue Cyprus of their dreams, which would one day be granted to them because they have a God-given right to it. Unfortunately, that was, and probably still is, the way to do politics and get elected to power in Cyprus, but even more unfortunately for the Greek Cypriots, in international politics God-given rights count for nothing.

- The total and complete political defeat of the Greek Cypriots on every front during and after 2004, which is clear to anyone who is in any way in touch with reality. The extent of this defeat will become evident when the next serious negotiations for the Cyprus issue begin again. I don't think there is any Greek Cypriot who honestly believes we can negotiate our way to a solution which is better for us than the Annan plan was.

- The hardening of the Turkish position on the Cyprus issue which is a direct consequence of the above utter political defeat. The Cyprus issue is little more than a minor nuisance to Turkey now. The only time in the Turkey's history when the Cyprus issue became a real problem for the important long-term strategic plans of that country was in 2002-2004. It now no longer is. The Turkish political leadership has achieved everything they wanted to achieve in the Cyprus issue without removing a single soldier or settler from Cyprus, or giving back one inch of land. In short, Turkey has won, the Greek Cypriots have lost, and in politics and war, it's not the victors who concede anything.

- The opening of the Green Line checkpoints in 2003. Since then, the Greek Cypriots have been able to directly witness the extent of Turkification of the North in the last three years. This has shattered their hopes of ever being a significant presence in the North of Cyprus again, and, logically, they can't see why, having lost half their country, they should grant the Turkish Cypriots anything else.

- The enactment of the Green Line regulation of 2004, and the induction of Cyprus into the EU with the issue unsolved. Since then, the Turkish Cypriots have got most of what they wanted when they were demonstrating on the streets in 2002 and 2003. They now have European Union passports, the average income has soared, the value of the land they can sell has skyrocketed. All they lack is direct flights to the airports in north Cyprus. Once that is achieved, it's end-game - they will be interested in very little else the Greek Cypriots can offer them. All the other barriers they are facing because of the Cyprus issue have become the object of attention of the international community and they will, within the next few years, cease to be a real impediment to the lives of any of them. If the Annan plan were presented to the Turkish Cypriots again today, it is unlikely a majority would vote in its favour - let alone in favour of any Greek Cypriot pipe-dream solution which would be better for the Greek Cypriots than the Annan Plan.

- The gradual Turkish Cypriot realisation, after 2004, of just how little acceptance of anything or anyone Turkish, Turkic or Turkish-speaking there is among Greek Cypriots. Turkish Cypriots were, until 2003, laboring under the misapprehension that the average Greek Cypriot could make a distinction between the Turkish army of occupation and the Turkish Cypriots. Experience of how the collective consciousness of 1974 has influenced Greek Cypriots has been a rude shock to most of them, and they have adjusted their attitudes accordingly.

Bizonal Bicommunal Federation is dead as the basis for a solution.

It is, however, very much alive as an alibi for the political leaderships on both sides. The politicians of both sides are now happy to continue mouthing platitudes about a "Bizonal Bicommunal Federation With The Right Content" for the next thirty years or more, while each is furtering its own plans - and re-uniting Cyprus under a Bizonal Bicommunal Federation does not feature in the plans of either set of politicians, no matter what they say about it. And just about everyone else who has a say or any influence in it - UN, EU, Americans, Brits, Turks, Greeks - will be happy to let them continue, because their plans are served as well.

So there you have it. Tassos will probably win the election, but in the end it doesn't make much difference as far as the Cyprus issue is concerned.

So, leaving the Cyprus issue out of it, a conscientious voter would have to choose on the basis of who would do the best for the country as far as all the other issues are concerned. Or, as the immortal words of Harry Klynn put it much better, "not who would do the best, but who would do the least worst (sic)".

For myself, I think that's probably Kassou, but because of that damn Cyprus issue, I don't think he has a snowball's. And given the track record of every political party in Cyprus when it comes to screwing up on most fronts, I don't think there's much difference there either.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

So, to sum it up without the mask of unrelated related issues, you like Kassou's conservative policies on internal issues and the fact that he's completely confused about handling his positions on the Cyprob during the pre-election period isn't that important to you.

Definitely the worst article written here so far. At least everyone else has been honest in their presentation. "Yay for Kassou" would've sufficed.

PS: Most of your points are funny. Either dead in the water, or completely unrelated to your title.

Παρρησία said...

Dear Christofias,
better luck next time


από το In.gr:
"Σταθερό προβάδισμα του Τάσσου Παπαδόπουλου εν όψει των προεδρικών εκλογών του Φεβρουαρίου του 2008 δίνει νέα δημοσκόπηση που πραγματοποιήθηκε στην Κύπρο.

Έκπληξη η τρίτη θέση για τον υποψήφιο του ΑΚΕΛ Δημήτρη Χριστόφια με ελάχιστη, πάντως, διαφορά από τον Ι.Κασουλίδη.

Συγκεκριμένα, ο Τάσσος Παπαδόπουλος λαμβάνει 32,9%, ο ευρωβουλευτής του ΔΗΣΥ Ιωάννης Κασουλίδης 27,6% , ο γενικός γραμματέας του ΑΚΕΛ Δημήτρης Χριστόφιας 27,5% και ο Κώστας Θεμιστοκλέους 0,4%."

Sceptic Anonymous said...

@Anonynous

Truth hurts eh? Presumambly you support Christofias, the man who said no to cement yes. If that is not a contradiction I don't know what is.
But the bottomline is that in politics only fools and racists don't change their opinion. Everything is fluid and to expect someone to hold the same position throughout his entire political career, you will have more luck in supporting the Pope.

I agree with most of the points, save from the point which says that Kassoulides might be the least evil. I don't know my cynicism knows no bounds and I have this feeling that Kassoulidis will simply be another incarnation of the same evil that plagues our politics - sod all. It's just that this sod all every time has a slightly different political hue but the end result is always pretty much the same, save a few details here and there.

But I agree that no change is to be expected. There is no european solution, there is no common ground between us and the T/Cs on a COMMUNAL level. On personal terms we get along but as soon as it turns communal it all goes pair shape.

Expect little so that against all hope there might be some bicommunal epiphany - but history is not on our side.

stravoxylo said...

@anonymous: you won't be bothered to answer any of my points, yet you accuse me of dishonesty - anonymously. You're the one writing anonymously, I'm the one with the mask. Yawn. Typical horkatocypriot kindergarten-level (un)reasoning and discourse. Definitely the most boring blog comment so far. I'm off to read Phileleftheros for a bit of diversion.

@sceptic anonymous: I thought that my quote from Harry Klynn about voting "not for the man who promises to do the best, but for the man who promises to do the least worst (sic)", as well as the tone of the rest of my article, made my own cynicism abundantly clear, but perhaps I pulled my punches a bit. We largely agree Sir.

Seaviewer said...

I fully agree with you, Stavoxylo. Perhaps one can add that none of our former presidents or other politicians has ever explained to the people what does Federation means, let alone Bi-Bi, etc. Another factor one could add is the objection of the strong economic oligarchy on the island to any solution, or better, to continue searching for a solution indefinitely and the dogma of "osmosis".

Anonymous said...

Την μπανανόφλουδα του να γίνεται συζήτηση για το ποιος θα νικήσει ή ποιος προηγείται στις δημοσκοπήσεις την αντιλαμβάνεται κανείς;

Αν σκοπός είναι ο περιορισμός της μισαλλοδοξίας και η άρνηση στη νοοτροπία του "Εμεις..." (το Έθνος, η Ομάδα, το Κόμμα, η Φαμέλια, το Καπετανάτο) "...τζιαι κανένας άλλος"...

... τότε η ψήφος σε "όποιον μπορεί να νικήσει", σε "εκείνον που προτιμούν οι περισσότεροι", σε "όποιον είναι λιγότερο Δεξιός ή Αριστερός" (αλλά όχι σε "όποιον είναι περισσότερο Ορθός"), σε "εκείνον που οι οπαδοί του μας 'κιστίζουν' λιγότερο", σε ...

...δεν είναι τίποτε άλλο από παραδοχή ήττας.

Ερώτηση: Ο τΑΣΣΟΣ πραγματικά αντιπρωσοπεύει την νοοτροπία της μάζας στη Κύπρο;

Απάντηση: Πολύ πιθανό.

Ε, ΚΑΙ;

Σημαίνει αυτό πως πρέπει και εγώ να ασπαστώ τούτη την νοοτροπία;

Ένα πράγμα που πάντα απέφευγα ...και που όσο γερνάω, τόσο πιο πεισματικά αρνούμαι να κάνω... είναι να "τροποποιήσω" τα όσα λέω και τα όσα κάνω για να "συμμορφώνονται" με το ρεύμα, για να γίνω αρεστός ή λιγότερο "ενόχληση".

Αρνούμαι να είμαι κιότης.

Αγρινό Ηλίθιο

Yiota said...

once upon a time Tassos said that he will never accept a plan...why are we still hoping for a solution with tassos?

Aceras Anthropophorum said...

With Tassos Yiota έχουμε solution τζαι μάλιστα the second best.

Anonymous said...

Ωραια, λοιπόν. Ας τελιώσει ο Τάσσος αυτό που η γενιά του, η γενιά του ΄60 άρχισε. Να σκοτώσουν την Κυπριακή Δημοκρατία των Ελλήνων και των Τούρκων της Κύπρου. Να μείνουν μόνοι τους, σε μια "καθαρή" (Νότια) Κύπρο. Α, να καθαρίσουν τζαι τους μάυρους τζαι τους ρωσσοπόνυιους τζαι όσους τους ενοχλούν με την παρουσία τους.

Tassikos said...

kourastika va akouw avtnv tnv istoria me 'tous politikous tns gevias tou 60'...

idika otav proerxete apo atoma pou priv 5 xrovia eproothousav tov gerov tov Kliridi gia 16 mnves proedria parolo pou ntav sta 80 tou.

diladi o Kasoulidis poias dekaetias eivai ? me avto to 'politikoi tns dekaetias tou 60' prospathei va mas pei oti molis evilikiothike avtos ? :)

sygvomn diladi o Kasoulidis ekprosopa tnv NEA GENIA :) :)

gia avto xavei n epikoivoviakh politikn tou DISI, prospathouv va poulisouv eva ekprosopo tns aristokratias sav tov avthropo pou eivia kovta sta problhmata tou kosmou, kai eva atomo mias kapoias nlikias sav veolaio.... me liga logia prospathouv va mas poulisouv ta roubithkia gia xabiari...ehh dev mou fevete va ta gorazei kavevas.

Noullis said...

@ Tassikos:

"diladi o Kasoulidis poias dekaetias eivai ? me avto to 'politikoi tns dekaetias tou 60' prospathei va mas pei oti molis evilikiothike avtos ? :)"

ma8e na metras!

Tassikos said...

pantos neos dev eivai..

Tassikos said...

pantos neos dev eivai..

Illantros (Ιλλαντρος) said...

Θα συμφωνήσω με τον Τασσικό. Κι εγώ θεωρώ ότι τα περί γενιάς του 60 είναι απόλυτα και ισοπεδωτικά. Το πρόβλημα του Τάσσου δεν είναι ότι είναι της γενιάς του 60. Το πρόβλημα του είναι ότι είναι ένας εθνικιστής και διεφθαρμένος μεγαλοδικηγόρος που νομίζει ότι η πολιτική είναι πώς να γελάσεις του άλλου. Δεν καταλαβαίνει ότι στη διεθνή πολιτική πρέπει να είσαι αξιόπιστος και να κτίζεις συμμαχίες. Για αυτό αντί να μιλάμε για απομόνωση των Τ/Κ σε λίγο θα μιλάμε για την απομόνωση της Κυπριακής Δημοκρατίας. Επιπλέον είναι μακράν ο πιο διεφθαρμένος πρόεδρος που είχαμε ποτέ. Οι υποθέσεις με το φυσικό αέριο και τα κινέζικα όπλα βρωμούν από πολύ μακριά.

Αυτό είναι το πρόβλημα του Τάσου, όχι ότι είναι 75 χρονών.

Ο Τασσικός αποκαλεί τον Κασουλίδη εκπρόσωπο της αριστοκρατίας. Αν ήσουν του Χριστόφια να πω ότι συγκριτικά μπορεί να έχεις λίγο δίκαιο. Αλλά εσύ είσαι του Τάσσου. Του πλουσιότερου Κύπριου, του δικηγόρου όλων των μεγάλων επιχειρήσεων. Ο Κασουλίδης είναι ένας απλός γιατρός. Κοντά στον Τάσσο είναι προλετάριος.

Παρρησία said...

PARTE TO APOFASH
TASSOS GIA ALLA 5 XRONIA!

AXL said...

@ παρρησία

ΠΡΙΤΣ

Sike said...

@Illantros: ...wste "milate" gia apomonosi twn T/k?

!!!

Illantros (Ιλλαντρος) said...

Sike:

Η διεθνής κοινότητα για αυτό μιλώ. Νομίζεις μιλά για την εισβολή και την κατοχή;